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Economic recovery remains the baseline outlook. This week gains were reported in industrial production, housing starts and leading indicators. There was, however, a bit of a cautionary breeze coming from an inflationary direction. Industrial production rose 0.8 percent with manufacturing alone up 1.1 percent with improvement in motor vehicles, machinery…

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In currencies, the greenback has gained steadily this week, building on newly-discovered momentum in thinning year-end liquidity conditions, aided by technical factors and the ratings dramas in Europe. Dealers have been watching higher Treasury yields for clues on the next leg of the dollar’s price action. One European dealer warned…

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Technical analysis shows us the euro may continue its downtrend as the market breaks uptrend line downwards and MACD continues to drop plus RSI is in a downtrend. Bollinger gives us a bearish signal by closing the candle below the middle band.

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Signs that the U.S. recovery gained steam in the final quarter of 2009 abounded this week. First, data on retail sales showed that the all important U.S. consumer continued to rebound in November. The U.S. economy is also getting some much needed support from the economic recovery abroad, which along…

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Although a third week of downside closes was recorded the past week, the fact that the last two closes were marginal closes suggests that the bulls are fencing off bears attack. With the pair still holding above its key support at the 1.6267 level and its longer term rising trendline,…

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Rallying, with record volume on EBS, a lot more than we had allowed for after touching a multi-year low at 84.82, so that this now looks like an ‘extension’ and ‘spike low’. This suggests that the ‘channel’ will hold for many months to come, though keeping the downside bias thanks…

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Forex Weekly Trading Forecast – 12.07.09
US Dollar: Post-NFP Rally Could Continue on Trend Breaks Euro at the Mercy of the US Dollar and Risk Appetite Despite ECB Steps Japanese Yen Selling to Continue as Dollar, Stocks Decouple British Pound Doesn’t Make for the Standard Dollar Counterpart Swiss Franc Looks To Break Range As Growth Fears Rise Canadian Dollar Still in Uptrend Ahead of Next BOC Meeting Australian Dollar Could Lose …

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