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Posts Tagged ‘Weekly’

Short speculative GBP positions have been cut back over the last four weeks, but overall are still well above historical norms. This leaves scope for an (extensive) short squeeze if the Labour party is defeated next week Thursday, with the biggest move potentially earmarked for GBP/JPY depending on equity market reaction to US nonfarm payrolls. The dollar index hit our 82.24 target this week, cruising to a 82.71 high on flight-to-quality and outflows from the EUR. We look for the index to stay supported near-term, but within ranges unless the EU/IMF loan deal falls through (unlikely) and Chancellor Merkel loses the regional election in the state of NRW on May 9 (possible). We now target the 18 May-09 high, though admit that progress could stall if risk assets make it through next week unscathed. We look for the RBA to raise rates to 4.50%, but favour fading (stretched) long AUD positions if the accompanying statement takes on a neutral tone.

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Over the previous weekend, the EU promised a bailout will be provided if requested by Greece. This gave the euro a boost to begin the week, creating opening gaps across the board. By the end of the week however, the initial momentum fizzled, and the EUR/USD closed its gap. Friday…

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The dollar found itself on the defensive against European currencies for much of the week, softness blamed on month- and quarter-end stop-loss orders. Several factors favored technical retracement in EUR/USD pair, which has seen an 800 pip Q1 quarter sell-off. Traders cited passive month/quarter end portfolio rebalancing, higher March inflation…

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In spite of exceptionally strong data out of Germany this week, markets barely moved on the release, as focus turned back to sovereign debt problems. The renewed concerns over the debt situation were fuelled by Fitch’s downgrade of Portugal and this week’s intense discussion between EMU member state officials before…

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This was basically a week of continuing consolidation, except for the USD/CAD which is looking seriously at the parity scenario. The coming weeks may be crucial as the markets test important powerlines. We have short-term consolidations/corrections in pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and GBP/JPY. But we are also testing…

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Last week, Eurozone’s debt issues and announcement of tightening in Chinese banks extended the current atmosphere of risk aversion, which weakened the Euro, but boosted the US Dollar and Yen. This week, the Yen and Greenback consolidated, but the Greenback broke out and continued its strength. The USD was boosted…

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This week, European news headlines have been dominated by S&P’s downgrade of Greece and the nationalisation of the Austrian bank Hypo Group Alpe Adria. Once again this should serve as a reminder that the crisis is contained, but not over. In the meantime, the potentially biggest game changer in the…

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